Villarreal CF vs Getafe CF

Villarreal CF
#9 · 12 pts
vs
Scheduled
Getafe CF
#13 · 12 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Villarreal 63%Draw 23%Getafe 14%
Over 2.544%
Both score41%
Model goals1.75–0.68

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 15.5%2–0 · 13.5%1–1 · 10.5%2–1 · 9.1%0–0 · 8.9%3–0 · 7.9%

Why

The model expects Villarreal to score 1.75 goals: league home average 1.71 × Villarreal home attack 0.85 × Getafe away defence 1.20.

It expects Getafe to score 0.68 goals: league away average 1.30 × Getafe away attack 0.50 × Villarreal home defence 1.04.

Based on 5 home games for Villarreal, 5 away games for Getafe and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Villarreal (63%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

VillarrealGetafe
Table position#9 · 12 pts#13 · 12 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWDLWWLDLW
Home W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (6:7)3-3-0 (8:4)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-2-2 (9:8)0-0-5 (0:12)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.20 / 1.401.33 / 0.67
Goals per game away (for/against)1.50 / 1.330.00 / 2.40
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

VillarrealGetafe
Days since last match4.97.2
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+13.8 d: @ Barça (PD)+14.1 d: vs Atleti (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.801.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 4 (11)2 / 5 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 7 (11)4 / 4 (11)

Villarreal – recent matches, all competitions: L vs PSG 0–6 · L vs Espanyol 0–1 · W @ Valencia 2–1 · L @ Liverpool 3–4 · D vs Elche 0–0 · W vs Napoli 3–1

Getafe – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Sevilla FC 3–1 · L @ Athletic 0–4 · D vs Rayo Vallecano 1–1 · L @ Barça 0–3 · W vs Málaga 1–0 · L @ Real Betis 0–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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