Saga
AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 10:42 pm
Model pick 1–0
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Sevilla FC to score 1.78 goals: league home average 1.71 × Sevilla FC home attack 0.91 × Alavés away defence 1.14.
It expects Alavés to score 1.09 goals: league away average 1.30 × Alavés away attack 0.81 × Sevilla FC home defence 1.04.
Based on 5 home games for Sevilla FC, 5 away games for Alavés and 109 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Sevilla FC (53%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
What the AIs predict
Every AI got exactly the same data and locked its pick before kickoff.
Sevilla's home record (3-0-2, 7:7) is modest, but Alavés are poor away (0-2-3, 4:11 scored and conceded). Sevilla are the likelier winners, though a low-scoring home win is the most probable scoreline given both sides' averages.
Sevilla are stronger at home and Alavés have poor away form (0 wins, 4 scored in 5 away). Both teams concede regularly, and recent results suggest goals but a home edge.
AI reasoning is generated by each model from the data shown on this page and may contain mistakes.
Form & stats this competition season
| Sevilla FC | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #6 · 17 pts | #11 · 12 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LWLDL | LDLLD |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 3-0-2 (7:7) | 3-1-2 (11:6) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 2-2-2 (10:12) | 0-2-3 (4:11) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 1.40 / 1.40 | 1.83 / 1.00 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.67 / 2.00 | 0.80 / 2.20 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).
Schedule, form & head-to-head
| Sevilla FC | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| Days since last match | 5.3 | 6 |
| Matches in last 14 days | 2 | 1 |
| Next match | +14.9 d: vs Real Betis (PD) | +14.7 d: vs Deportivo (PD) |
| Points per game, last 5 (all comps) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp) | 3 / 0 (11) | 3 / 2 (11) |
| Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp) | 7 / 8 (11) | 6 / 7 (11) |
Sevilla FC – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Getafe 1–3 · W vs Osasuna 2–0 · L @ Real Madrid 1–4 · D @ Levante 3–3 · L vs Barça 1–3 · W @ Deportivo 1–0
Alavés – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Barça 1–6 · D vs Málaga 1–1 · L @ Celta 1–2 · L vs Atleti 1–2 · D @ Athletic 0–0 · L vs Valencia 0–1
Head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Sevilla FC 1 wins, 4 draws, Alavés 3 wins · 3.25 goals per game.
- Sevilla FC 1–1 Alavés Primera Division · 14 Feb 2026
- Alavés 1–2 Sevilla FC Primera Division · 20 Sep 2025
- Sevilla FC 1–1 Alavés Primera Division · 20 Apr 2025
- Alavés 2–1 Sevilla FC Primera Division · 20 Sep 2024
- Sevilla FC 2–3 Alavés Primera Division · 12 Jan 2024
- Alavés 4–3 Sevilla FC Primera Division · 21 Aug 2023
Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.
More Primera Division matches
- Málaga vs Santander 7 Nov 13:00
- Espanyol vs Deportivo 7 Nov 15:15
- Osasuna vs Athletic 7 Nov 17:30
- Valencia vs Real Madrid 7 Nov 20:00
- Elche vs Real Betis 8 Nov 13:00
- Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano 8 Nov 15:15
- Celta vs Levante 8 Nov 17:30
- Villarreal vs Getafe 8 Nov 17:30
- Atleti vs Barça 8 Nov 20:00