RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs RC Deportivo La Coruña

RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
#14 · 11 pts
vs
Scheduled
RC Deportivo La Coruña
#8 · 14 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Espanyol 38%Draw 25%Deportivo 37%
Over 2.553%
Both score57%
Model goals1.41–1.40

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–1 · 11.9%1–0 · 8.5%0–1 · 8.4%2–1 · 8.4%1–2 · 8.3%0–0 · 6.0%

Why

The model expects Espanyol to score 1.41 goals: league home average 1.71 × Espanyol home attack 0.85 × Deportivo away defence 0.97.

It expects Deportivo to score 1.40 goals: league away average 1.30 × Deportivo away attack 1.04 × Espanyol home defence 1.04.

Based on 5 home games for Espanyol, 5 away games for Deportivo and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

The outcome is close to a toss-up according to the model – treat the pick with extra caution.

Form & stats this competition season

EspanyolDeportivo
Table position#14 · 11 pts#8 · 14 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLLDLWLDLD
Home W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (6:7)2-3-1 (8:6)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-1-3 (7:7)1-2-2 (7:8)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.20 / 1.401.33 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.17 / 1.171.40 / 1.60
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

EspanyolDeportivo
Days since last match7.84.8
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+13.2 d: @ Athletic (PD)+13.9 d: @ Alavés (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.801.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 1 (11)0 / 2 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 7 (11)4 / 9 (11)

Espanyol – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Villarreal 1–0 · L @ Santander 1–2 · L vs Atleti 0–1 · D @ Málaga 1–1 · L vs Elche 1–3 · L @ Rayo Vallecano 1–2

Deportivo – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Osasuna 2–1 · L @ Atleti 0–1 · D vs Levante 1–1 · L @ Real Sociedad 2–3 · D vs Real Betis 1–1 · L vs Sevilla FC 0–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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