RC Celta de Vigo vs Levante UD

RC Celta de Vigo
#10 · 12 pts
vs
Scheduled
Levante UD
#18 · 10 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Celta 55%Draw 26%Levante 19%
Over 2.539%
Both score41%
Model goals1.49–0.76

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 15.8%1–1 · 11.9%2–0 · 11.8%0–0 · 10.6%2–1 · 8.9%0–1 · 8.0%

Why

The model expects Celta to score 1.49 goals: league home average 1.71 × Celta home attack 0.93 × Levante away defence 0.93.

It expects Levante to score 0.76 goals: league away average 1.30 × Levante away attack 0.66 × Celta home defence 0.87.

Based on 6 home games for Celta, 6 away games for Levante and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Celta (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

CeltaLevante
Table position#10 · 12 pts#18 · 10 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDWDWLLWDD
Home W-D-L (goals)2-2-2 (9:6)2-1-2 (13:12)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-4-1 (1:4)0-3-3 (3:9)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.50 / 1.002.60 / 2.40
Goals per game away (for/against)0.20 / 0.800.50 / 1.50
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

CeltaLevante
Days since last match8.18.2
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+13.1 d: @ Real Madrid (PD)+15.1 d: vs Elche (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.601.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)5 / 6 (11)2 / 4 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 4 (11)7 / 7 (11)

Celta – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Rayo Vallecano 0–3 · D vs Real Betis 0–0 · W vs Alavés 2–1 · D @ Elche 0–0 · W vs Santander 5–0 · D vs Málaga 1–1

Levante – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Atleti 0–2 · L @ Real Sociedad 1–2 · W vs Athletic 3–1 · D @ Deportivo 1–1 · D vs Sevilla FC 3–3 · L @ Villarreal 1–3

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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