CA Osasuna vs Athletic Club

CA Osasuna
#15 · 11 pts
vs
Scheduled
Athletic Club
#7 · 15 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Osasuna 43%Draw 31%Athletic 25%
Over 2.529%
Both score36%
Model goals1.10–0.77

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 16.9%0–0 · 15.3%1–1 · 13.1%0–1 · 11.8%2–0 · 9.3%2–1 · 7.2%

Why

The model expects Osasuna to score 1.10 goals: league home average 1.71 × Osasuna home attack 0.73 × Athletic away defence 0.88.

It expects Athletic to score 0.77 goals: league away average 1.30 × Athletic away attack 0.81 × Osasuna home defence 0.73.

Based on 5 home games for Osasuna, 4 away games for Athletic and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Osasuna (43%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

OsasunaAthletic
Table position#15 · 11 pts#7 · 15 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLWLDWWLDD
Home W-D-L (goals)2-2-1 (4:3)3-2-1 (11:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-5 (7:19)1-1-2 (3:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.80 / 0.601.83 / 0.83
Goals per game away (for/against)1.17 / 3.170.75 / 1.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

OsasunaAthletic
Days since last match4.95.9
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+15 d: vs Málaga (PD)+13.1 d: vs Espanyol (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.801.60
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 4 (11)5 / 3 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 5 (11)5 / 4 (10)

Osasuna – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Deportivo 1–2 · L @ Sevilla FC 0–2 · W vs Santander 2–0 · L @ Real Betis 2–5 · D vs Rayo Vallecano 1–1 · L @ Atleti 0–4

Athletic – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Real Sociedad 2–1 · W vs Getafe 4–0 · L @ Levante 1–3 · D @ Valencia 0–0 · D vs Alavés 0–0 · D vs Elche 1–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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