Elche CF vs Real Betis Balompié

Elche CF
#17 · 10 pts
vs
Scheduled
Real Betis Balompié
#4 · 23 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Elche 24%Draw 23%Real Betis 52%
Over 2.556%
Both score57%
Model goals1.14–1.78

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–1 · 11.0%1–2 · 9.7%0–1 · 9.6%0–2 · 8.5%2–1 · 6.2%1–0 · 6.2%

Why

The model expects Elche to score 1.14 goals: league home average 1.71 × Elche home attack 0.73 × Real Betis away defence 0.91.

It expects Real Betis to score 1.78 goals: league away average 1.30 × Real Betis away attack 0.96 × Elche home defence 1.42.

Based on 5 home games for Elche, 5 away games for Real Betis and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Real Betis (52%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

ElcheReal Betis
Table position#17 · 10 pts#4 · 23 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWDDWWDLWD
Home W-D-L (goals)0-1-4 (4:12)5-0-1 (12:8)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-3-1 (10:6)2-2-1 (6:7)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.80 / 2.402.00 / 1.33
Goals per game away (for/against)1.67 / 1.001.20 / 1.40
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

ElcheReal Betis
Days since last match6.83.7
Matches in last 14 days13
Next match+15.3 d: @ Levante (PD)+13.2 d: @ Sevilla FC (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.601.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 4 (11)5 / 1 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 6 (11)5 / 6 (11)

Elche – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Valencia 0–1 · W @ Rayo Vallecano 3–0 · D @ Villarreal 0–0 · D vs Celta 0–0 · W @ Espanyol 3–1 · L vs Real Madrid 2–3

Real Betis – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Dortmund 1–2 · W vs Málaga 2–1 · D @ Celta 0–0 · W vs Feyenoord 1–0 · L vs Barça 2–5 · W vs Porto 3–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

More Primera Division matches