Valencia CF vs Real Madrid CF

Valencia CF
#19 · 9 pts
vs
Scheduled
Real Madrid CF
#3 · 27 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Valencia 16%Draw 21%Real Madrid 63%
Over 2.553%
Both score50%
Model goals0.87–1.95

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

0–1 · 11.7%0–2 · 11.4%1–1 · 10.1%1–2 · 9.9%0–3 · 7.4%1–3 · 6.4%

Why

The model expects Valencia to score 0.87 goals: league home average 1.71 × Valencia home attack 0.61 × Real Madrid away defence 0.83.

It expects Real Madrid to score 1.95 goals: league away average 1.30 × Real Madrid away attack 1.22 × Valencia home defence 1.22.

Based on 6 home games for Valencia, 6 away games for Real Madrid and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Real Madrid (63%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

ValenciaReal Madrid
Table position#19 · 9 pts#3 · 27 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLDDLWWWWL
Home W-D-L (goals)0-2-4 (3:11)5-0-0 (17:3)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-1-2 (5:6)4-0-2 (11:7)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.50 / 1.833.40 / 0.60
Goals per game away (for/against)1.00 / 1.201.83 / 1.17
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

ValenciaReal Madrid
Days since last match6.13.1
Matches in last 14 days13
Next match+13.8 d: @ Rayo Vallecano (PD)+14 d: vs Celta (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.003.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)4 / 5 (11)3 / 1 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 4 (11)9 / 7 (11)

Valencia – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Elche 1–0 · L vs Villarreal 1–2 · D vs Athletic 0–0 · D @ Santander 2–2 · L vs Real Sociedad 2–3 · W @ Alavés 1–0

Real Madrid – recent matches, all competitions: W @ PAE AEK 3–2 · W @ Santander 3–0 · W @ Barça 2–1 · W vs RB Leipzig 4–1 · W vs Sevilla FC 4–1 · W @ Roma 4–3

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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