Málaga CF vs Real Racing Club de Santander

Málaga CF
#20 · 5 pts
vs
Scheduled
Real Racing Club de Santander
#16 · 11 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Málaga 55%Draw 21%Santander 24%
Over 2.567%
Both score65%
Model goals2.10–1.33

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

2–1 · 9.5%1–1 · 9.0%2–0 · 7.1%1–0 · 6.8%3–1 · 6.7%2–2 · 6.3%

Why

The model expects Málaga to score 2.10 goals: league home average 1.71 × Málaga home attack 0.79 × Santander away defence 1.55.

It expects Santander to score 1.33 goals: league away average 1.30 × Santander away attack 0.81 × Málaga home defence 1.27.

Based on 5 home games for Málaga, 5 away games for Santander and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Málaga (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

MálagaSantander
Table position#20 · 5 pts#16 · 11 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDLDLLWLDL
Home W-D-L (goals)0-3-2 (5:10)3-2-1 (11:11)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-2-4 (3:11)0-0-5 (4:18)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.00 / 2.001.83 / 1.83
Goals per game away (for/against)0.50 / 1.830.80 / 3.60
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

MálagaSantander
Days since last match6.85.9
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+15.2 d: @ Osasuna (PD)+15.1 d: vs Real Sociedad (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.400.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 4 (11)0 / 4 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 7 (11)9 / 7 (11)

Málaga – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Real Betis 1–2 · D @ Alavés 1–1 · L vs Real Sociedad 2–5 · D vs Espanyol 1–1 · L @ Getafe 0–1 · L vs Villarreal 1–3

Santander – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Real Madrid 0–3 · W vs Espanyol 2–1 · L @ Osasuna 0–2 · D vs Valencia 2–2 · L @ Celta 0–5 · L @ Barça 2–7

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in the data source.

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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