Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs Rayo Vallecano de Madrid

Real Sociedad de Fútbol
#5 · 19 pts
vs
Scheduled
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid
#12 · 12 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Real Sociedad 53%Draw 22%Rayo Vallecano 25%
Over 2.563%
Both score62%
Model goals1.96–1.30

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 9.8%2–1 · 9.6%1–0 · 7.5%2–0 · 7.4%1–2 · 6.4%3–1 · 6.3%

Why

The model expects Real Sociedad to score 1.96 goals: league home average 1.71 × Real Sociedad home attack 0.91 × Rayo Vallecano away defence 1.26.

It expects Rayo Vallecano to score 1.30 goals: league away average 1.30 × Rayo Vallecano away attack 0.96 × Real Sociedad home defence 1.04.

Based on 5 home games for Real Sociedad, 5 away games for Rayo Vallecano and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Real Sociedad (53%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
Table position#5 · 19 pts#12 · 12 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWWWWWLDDW
Home W-D-L (goals)3-1-1 (7:7)3-1-1 (9:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)3-0-3 (13:13)0-2-3 (6:13)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.40 / 1.401.80 / 1.40
Goals per game away (for/against)2.17 / 2.171.20 / 2.60
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Real SociedadRayo Vallecano
Days since last match6.88
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+14 d: @ Santander (PD)+13 d: vs Valencia (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.401.60
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 3 (11)1 / 1 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)9 / 8 (11)7 / 8 (10)

Real Sociedad – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Athletic 1–2 · W vs Levante 2–1 · W @ Málaga 5–2 · W vs Deportivo 3–2 · W @ Valencia 3–2 · L vs Atleti 0–3

Rayo Vallecano – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Celta 3–0 · L vs Elche 0–3 · D @ Getafe 1–1 · D @ Osasuna 1–1 · W vs Espanyol 2–1 · L @ Real Madrid 1–4

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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