Club Atlético de Madrid vs FC Barcelona

Club Atlético de Madrid
#2 · 28 pts
vs
Scheduled
FC Barcelona
#1 · 30 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Atleti 29%Draw 21%Barça 50%
Over 2.570%
Both score69%
Model goals1.55–2.08

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–2 · 8.9%1–1 · 8.5%2–2 · 6.9%2–1 · 6.6%1–3 · 6.2%0–2 · 5.7%

Why

The model expects Atleti to score 1.55 goals: league home average 1.71 × Atleti home attack 1.14 × Barça away defence 0.79.

It expects Barça to score 2.08 goals: league away average 1.30 × Barça away attack 2.19 × Atleti home defence 0.73.

Based on 5 home games for Atleti, 5 away games for Barça and 109 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Barça (50%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

AtletiBarça
Table position#2 · 28 pts#1 · 30 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WWWWWWLWWW
Home W-D-L (goals)4-1-0 (11:3)5-0-1 (24:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)5-0-1 (11:5)5-0-0 (22:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.20 / 0.604.00 / 1.17
Goals per game away (for/against)1.83 / 0.834.40 / 1.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.71 home and 1.30 away goals per match (109 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

AtletiBarça
Days since last match55
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+14 d: @ Getafe (PD)+13.7 d: vs Villarreal (PD)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.001.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)6 / 1 (11)4 / 0 (11)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 4 (11)10 / 7 (11)

Atleti – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Bayern 0–2 · W @ Levante 2–0 · W vs Deportivo 1–0 · D @ Stuttgart 1–1 · W @ Espanyol 1–0 · W vs Man United 2–0

Barça – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Aston Villa 3–0 · W vs Alavés 6–1 · L vs Real Madrid 1–2 · L @ PSG 2–4 · W @ Real Betis 5–2 · W @ Galatasaray 4–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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