AC Monza vs Atalanta BC

AC Monza
#18 · 7 pts
vs
Scheduled
Atalanta BC
#13 · 11 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Monza 52%Draw 20%Atalanta 28%
Over 2.574%
Both score71%
Model goals2.23–1.60

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

2–1 · 8.6%1–1 · 7.8%2–2 · 6.9%3–1 · 6.4%1–2 · 6.2%2–0 · 5.4%

Why

The model expects Monza to score 2.23 goals: league home average 1.62 × Monza home attack 1.17 × Atalanta away defence 1.17.

It expects Atalanta to score 1.60 goals: league away average 1.56 × Atalanta away attack 0.91 × Monza home defence 1.13.

Based on 4 home games for Monza, 4 away games for Atalanta and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Monza (52%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

MonzaAtalanta
Table position#18 · 7 pts#13 · 11 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLLWLLDDLW
Home W-D-L (goals)2-0-2 (9:8)3-1-2 (11:11)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-1-5 (8:16)0-1-3 (5:9)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.25 / 2.001.83 / 1.83
Goals per game away (for/against)1.33 / 2.671.25 / 2.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

MonzaAtalanta
Days since last match85.8
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+15.2 d: vs Fiorentina (SA)+14.2 d: vs Inter (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.601.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 0 (10)1 / 2 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)9 / 9 (10)8 / 7 (10)

Monza – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Bologna 1–2 · L vs Napoli 1–4 · L @ Torino 2–3 · W vs Cagliari 4–0 · L @ Lazio 1–3 · W vs Sassuolo 2–1

Atalanta – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Parma 0–3 · D @ Fiorentina 2–2 · D vs Frosinone 4–4 · L @ Milan 2–3 · W vs Venezia FC 3–1 · L @ Juventus 0–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

More Serie A matches