ACF Fiorentina vs Juventus FC

ACF Fiorentina
#16 · 8 pts
vs
Scheduled
Juventus FC
#7 · 17 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Fiorentina 26%Draw 24%Juventus 50%
Over 2.553%
Both score55%
Model goals1.14–1.66

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 11.5%0–1 · 10.1%1–2 · 9.6%0–2 · 8.4%1–0 · 6.9%2–1 · 6.6%

Why

The model expects Fiorentina to score 1.14 goals: league home average 1.62 × Fiorentina home attack 0.81 × Juventus away defence 0.87.

It expects Juventus to score 1.66 goals: league away average 1.56 × Juventus away attack 0.88 × Fiorentina home defence 1.21.

Based on 5 home games for Fiorentina, 5 away games for Juventus and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Juventus (50%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

FiorentinaJuventus
Table position#16 · 8 pts#7 · 17 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WDLLLWLWLD
Home W-D-L (goals)0-2-3 (5:11)3-1-1 (7:4)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-0-3 (10:12)2-1-2 (6:6)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.00 / 2.201.40 / 0.80
Goals per game away (for/against)2.00 / 2.401.20 / 1.20
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

FiorentinaJuventus
Days since last match6.17
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+15 d: @ Monza (SA)+13.7 d: vs Venezia FC (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.801.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)0 / 2 (10)5 / 2 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)9 / 8 (10)2 / 3 (10)

Fiorentina – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Sassuolo 4–2 · D vs Atalanta 2–2 · L @ Inter 1–2 · L vs Como 1907 1–3 · L @ Genoa 1–2 · D vs Napoli 1–1

Juventus – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Napoli 2–0 · L @ Genoa 0–2 · W @ Lecce 2–0 · L vs Lazio 0–3 · D @ Cagliari 1–1 · W vs Atalanta 2–0

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

More Serie A matches