Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna FC 1909

Parma Calcio 1913
#15 · 8 pts
vs
Scheduled
Bologna FC 1909
#9 · 14 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Parma 24%Draw 27%Bologna 49%
Over 2.540%
Both score45%
Model goals0.90–1.40

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

0–1 · 14.1%1–1 · 12.6%0–0 · 10.1%0–2 · 9.8%1–0 · 9.0%1–2 · 8.8%

Why

The model expects Parma to score 0.90 goals: league home average 1.62 × Parma home attack 0.69 × Bologna away defence 0.81.

It expects Bologna to score 1.40 goals: league away average 1.56 × Bologna away attack 1.01 × Parma home defence 0.88.

Based on 5 home games for Parma, 5 away games for Bologna and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Bologna (49%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

ParmaBologna
Table position#15 · 8 pts#9 · 14 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WDLLLWWWLW
Home W-D-L (goals)1-2-2 (3:6)1-2-2 (6:8)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-4 (5:9)3-0-2 (8:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.60 / 1.201.20 / 1.60
Goals per game away (for/against)1.00 / 1.801.60 / 1.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

ParmaBologna
Days since last match4.97.1
Matches in last 14 days32
Next match+14 d: vs Roma (SA)+14.9 d: vs Udinese (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.802.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)2 / 5 (10)1 / 3 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 4 (10)5 / 6 (10)

Parma – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Atalanta 3–0 · D vs Udinese 0–0 · L @ Lazio 1–2 · L vs Torino 0–3 · L @ Inter 0–3 · W vs Genoa 2–1

Bologna – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Monza 2–1 · W @ Milan 4–2 · W @ Cagliari 2–0 · L vs Inter 1–3 · W @ Lecce 2–1 · D vs Torino 1–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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