Genoa CFC vs AC Milan

Genoa CFC
#11 · 13 pts
vs
Scheduled
AC Milan
#5 · 21 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Genoa 29%Draw 26%Milan 45%
Over 2.547%
Both score51%
Model goals1.11–1.45

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 12.4%0–1 · 11.2%1–2 · 9.0%1–0 · 8.5%0–2 · 8.1%0–0 · 7.7%

Why

The model expects Genoa to score 1.11 goals: league home average 1.62 × Genoa home attack 0.85 × Milan away defence 0.81.

It expects Milan to score 1.45 goals: league away average 1.56 × Milan away attack 1.01 × Genoa home defence 0.92.

Based on 6 home games for Genoa, 5 away games for Milan and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Milan (45%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

GenoaMilan
Table position#11 · 13 pts#5 · 21 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WWWLWWLWWD
Home W-D-L (goals)3-1-2 (7:8)4-0-1 (13:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-3 (3:6)2-3-0 (8:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.17 / 1.332.60 / 1.40
Goals per game away (for/against)0.75 / 1.501.60 / 1.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

GenoaMilan
Days since last match6.97.8
Matches in last 14 days33
Next match+14 d: @ Sassuolo (SA)+14.1 d: vs Frosinone (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.402.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)2 / 3 (10)3 / 0 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 5 (10)6 / 7 (10)

Genoa – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Lecce 2–1 · W vs Juventus 2–0 · W vs Venezia FC 1–0 · L @ Roma 0–2 · W vs Fiorentina 2–1 · L @ Parma 1–2

Milan – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Inter 3–1 · L vs Bologna 2–4 · W @ Udinese 2–0 · W vs Atalanta 3–2 · D @ Sassuolo 1–1 · W vs Lecce 3–0

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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