Cagliari Calcio vs Frosinone Calcio

Cagliari Calcio
#12 · 13 pts
vs
Scheduled
Frosinone Calcio
#6 · 20 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Cagliari 32%Draw 26%Frosinone 43%
Over 2.551%
Both score55%
Model goals1.24–1.48

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 12.1%0–1 · 9.8%1–2 · 8.9%1–0 · 8.2%2–1 · 7.5%0–2 · 7.2%

Why

The model expects Cagliari to score 1.24 goals: league home average 1.62 × Cagliari home attack 0.69 × Frosinone away defence 1.10.

It expects Frosinone to score 1.48 goals: league away average 1.56 × Frosinone away attack 1.13 × Cagliari home defence 0.84.

Based on 4 home games for Cagliari, 4 away games for Frosinone and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Frosinone (43%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

CagliariFrosinone
Table position#12 · 13 pts#6 · 20 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLLLDWWDWL
Home W-D-L (goals)1-1-2 (2:4)5-0-1 (16:6)
Away W-D-L (goals)3-0-3 (7:11)1-2-1 (8:8)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.50 / 1.002.67 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.17 / 1.832.00 / 2.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

CagliariFrosinone
Days since last match66
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+14 d: @ Como 1907 (SA)+15.1 d: @ Milan (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.202.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 3 (10)3 / 2 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 4 (10)6 / 5 (10)

Cagliari – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Lazio 1–2 · L @ Roma 2–4 · L vs Bologna 0–2 · L @ Monza 0–4 · D vs Juventus 1–1 · W @ Udinese 1–0

Frosinone – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Torino 2–0 · W vs Lecce 5–1 · D @ Atalanta 4–4 · W vs Sassuolo 4–2 · L @ Napoli 0–3 · W vs Como 1907 2–0

Head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Cagliari 1 wins, 0 draws, Frosinone 1 wins · 5.50 goals per game.

  • Frosinone 3–1 Cagliari Serie A · 21 Jan 2024
  • Cagliari 4–3 Frosinone Serie A · 29 Oct 2023

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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