SSC Napoli vs SS Lazio

SSC Napoli
#8 · 14 pts
vs
Scheduled
SS Lazio
#1 · 28 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Napoli 23%Draw 22%Lazio 55%
Over 2.562%
Both score61%
Model goals1.23–1.99

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–1 · 9.8%1–2 · 9.7%0–1 · 8.0%0–2 · 7.9%1–3 · 6.5%2–1 · 6.0%

Why

The model expects Napoli to score 1.23 goals: league home average 1.62 × Napoli home attack 1.10 × Lazio away defence 0.69.

It expects Lazio to score 1.99 goals: league away average 1.56 × Lazio away attack 1.40 × Napoli home defence 0.91.

Based on 4 home games for Napoli, 5 away games for Lazio and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Lazio (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

NapoliLazio
Table position#8 · 14 pts#1 · 28 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWDLWWWWWW
Home W-D-L (goals)2-1-1 (8:5)4-1-0 (10:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-1-3 (9:8)5-0-0 (14:3)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.00 / 1.252.00 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.50 / 1.332.80 / 0.60
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

NapoliLazio
Days since last match3.66.9
Matches in last 14 days32
Next match+13.3 d: vs Torino (SA)+13.1 d: vs Lecce (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.403.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 2 (10)4 / 0 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 5 (10)7 / 6 (10)

Napoli – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Porto 1–4 · L @ Juventus 0–2 · W @ Monza 4–1 · D vs Roma 3–3 · W vs Bodø/Glimt 4–3 · L @ Venezia FC 0–1

Lazio – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Cagliari 2–1 · W @ Sassuolo 6–2 · W vs Parma 2–1 · W @ Juventus 3–0 · W vs Monza 3–1 · W @ Venezia FC 2–0

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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