AS Roma vs US Sassuolo Calcio

AS Roma
#3 · 24 pts
vs
Scheduled
US Sassuolo Calcio
#17 · 8 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Roma 71%Draw 16%Sassuolo 13%
Over 2.574%
Both score63%
Model goals2.74–1.13

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

2–1 · 8.8%3–1 · 8.1%2–0 · 7.8%3–0 · 7.1%1–1 · 6.4%1–0 · 5.7%

Why

The model expects Roma to score 2.74 goals: league home average 1.62 × Roma home attack 1.36 × Sassuolo away defence 1.24.

It expects Sassuolo to score 1.13 goals: league away average 1.56 × Sassuolo away attack 0.88 × Roma home defence 0.82.

Based on 5 home games for Roma, 5 away games for Sassuolo and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Roma (71%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

RomaSassuolo
Table position#3 · 24 pts#17 · 8 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WWDWDLLLLD
Home W-D-L (goals)4-1-0 (14:5)2-1-2 (10:14)
Away W-D-L (goals)3-2-0 (14:5)0-1-4 (6:12)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.80 / 1.002.00 / 2.80
Goals per game away (for/against)2.80 / 1.001.20 / 2.40
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

RomaSassuolo
Days since last match45.1
Matches in last 14 days32
Next match+13.9 d: @ Parma (SA)+14.8 d: vs Genoa (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.000.20
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)5 / 1 (10)0 / 1 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 5 (10)8 / 9 (10)

Roma – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Man United 2–3 · W @ Udinese 5–2 · W vs Cagliari 4–2 · D @ Napoli 3–3 · W vs Sl. Bratislava 4–0 · W vs Genoa 2–0

Sassuolo – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Fiorentina 2–4 · L vs Lazio 2–6 · L @ Como 1907 0–2 · L @ Frosinone 2–4 · D vs Milan 1–1 · L @ Monza 1–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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