Torino FC vs US Lecce

Torino FC
#10 · 13 pts
vs
Scheduled
US Lecce
#14 · 9 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Torino 39%Draw 24%Lecce 38%
Over 2.561%
Both score63%
Model goals1.59–1.57

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 10.6%2–1 · 8.4%1–2 · 8.3%1–0 · 6.7%2–2 · 6.6%0–1 · 6.6%

Why

The model expects Torino to score 1.59 goals: league home average 1.62 × Torino home attack 0.93 × Lecce away defence 1.06.

It expects Lecce to score 1.57 goals: league away average 1.56 × Lecce away attack 0.88 × Torino home defence 1.14.

Based on 5 home games for Torino, 5 away games for Lecce and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

The outcome is close to a toss-up according to the model – treat the pick with extra caution.

Form & stats this competition season

TorinoLecce
Table position#10 · 13 pts#14 · 9 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLWWWLLLWL
Home W-D-L (goals)2-0-3 (7:10)1-0-4 (5:12)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-1-2 (7:6)2-0-3 (6:9)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.40 / 2.001.00 / 2.40
Goals per game away (for/against)1.40 / 1.201.20 / 1.80
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

TorinoLecce
Days since last match65.9
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+14.2 d: @ Napoli (SA)+14 d: @ Lazio (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.800.60
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 2 (10)2 / 4 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 7 (10)7 / 4 (10)

Torino – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Frosinone 0–2 · L vs Como 1907 1–3 · W vs Monza 3–2 · W @ Parma 3–0 · W vs Udinese 2–1 · D @ Bologna 1–1

Lecce – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Genoa 1–2 · L @ Frosinone 1–5 · L vs Juventus 0–2 · W @ Udinese 3–0 · L vs Bologna 1–2 · L @ Milan 0–3

Head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Torino 5 wins, 1 draws, Lecce 3 wins · 1.67 goals per game.

  • Torino 1–0 Lecce Serie A · 1 Feb 2026
  • Lecce 2–1 Torino Serie A · 30 Nov 2025
  • Lecce 1–0 Torino Serie A · 18 May 2025
  • Torino 0–0 Lecce Serie A · 15 Sep 2024
  • Torino 2–0 Lecce Serie A · 16 Feb 2024
  • Lecce 0–1 Torino Serie A · 28 Oct 2023

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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