Venezia FC vs Udinese Calcio

Venezia FC
#20 · 3 pts
vs
Scheduled
Udinese Calcio
#19 · 5 pts

AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 10:42 pm

Venezia FC 27%Draw 23%Udinese 51%
Over 2.562%
Both score62%
Model goals1.30–1.88

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–1 · 10.2%1–2 · 9.5%0–1 · 7.8%0–2 · 7.3%2–1 · 6.6%2–2 · 6.2%

Why

The model expects Venezia FC to score 1.30 goals: league home average 1.62 × Venezia FC home attack 0.69 × Udinese away defence 1.17.

It expects Udinese to score 1.88 goals: league away average 1.56 × Udinese away attack 1.05 × Venezia FC home defence 1.14.

Based on 5 home games for Venezia FC, 4 away games for Udinese and 100 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Udinese (51%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

What the AIs predict

Every AI got exactly the same data and locked its pick before kickoff.

Claude1–2Locked
Venezia FC 30% · draw 28% · Udinese 42% · over 2.5 55%

Venezia have won once in ten and score only 0.60 per game, though they are at home. Udinese score 1.10 away and have a 1-1-2 away record. Both defences leak, so over 2.5 and both teams scoring are close to even. Slight edge to Udinese away.

ChatGPT1–1Locked
Venezia FC 31% · draw 33% · Udinese 36% · over 2.5 39%

Both teams are near the bottom with poor records, but Venezia are slightly stronger at home and Udinese are weak overall yet marginally better away. Recent results suggest a low-scoring match and a draw is the likeliest outcome.

AI reasoning is generated by each model from the data shown on this page and may contain mistakes.

Form & stats this competition season

Venezia FCUdinese
Table position#20 · 3 pts#19 · 5 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLLWLLDLLL
Home W-D-L (goals)1-0-4 (3:10)0-1-5 (4:14)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-0-5 (3:10)1-1-2 (7:9)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.60 / 2.000.67 / 2.33
Goals per game away (for/against)0.60 / 2.001.75 / 2.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.62 home and 1.56 away goals per match (100 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Venezia FCUdinese
Days since last match5.36.1
Matches in last 14 days33
Next match+15.7 d: @ Juventus (SA)+15.8 d: @ Bologna (SA)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.600.20
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 6 (10)1 / 4 (10)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)3 / 3 (10)6 / 6 (10)

Venezia FC – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Como 1907 0–1 · L vs Inter 0–2 · L @ Genoa 0–1 · W vs Napoli 1–0 · L @ Atalanta 1–3 · L vs Lazio 0–2

Udinese – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Roma 2–5 · D @ Parma 0–0 · L vs Milan 0–2 · L vs Lecce 0–3 · L @ Torino 1–2 · L vs Cagliari 0–1

Head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Venezia FC 1 wins, 0 draws, Udinese 3 wins · 4.00 goals per game.

  • Udinese 3–2 Venezia FC Serie A · 1 Feb 2025
  • Venezia FC 3–2 Udinese Serie A · 30 Oct 2024
  • Venezia FC 1–2 Udinese Serie A · 10 Apr 2022
  • Udinese 3–0 Venezia FC Serie A · 27 Aug 2021

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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