Nottingham Forest FC vs Manchester City FC

Nottingham Forest FC
#19 · 6 pts
vs
Scheduled
Manchester City FC
#2 · 21 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Nottingham 17%Draw 28%Man City 55%
Over 2.533%
Both score36%
Model goals0.65–1.39

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

0–1 · 18.1%0–0 · 13.0%0–2 · 12.6%1–1 · 11.7%1–0 · 8.5%1–2 · 8.2%

Why

The model expects Nottingham to score 0.65 goals: league home average 1.50 × Nottingham home attack 0.56 × Man City away defence 0.78.

It expects Man City to score 1.39 goals: league away average 1.20 × Man City away attack 1.39 × Nottingham home defence 0.83.

Based on 4 home games for Nottingham, 4 away games for Man City and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Man City (55%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

NottinghamMan City
Table position#19 · 6 pts#2 · 21 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDLLLLLWWW
Home W-D-L (goals)0-1-3 (0:3)4-0-1 (11:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-2-2 (6:9)3-0-1 (9:3)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.00 / 0.752.20 / 1.40
Goals per game away (for/against)1.20 / 1.802.25 / 0.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

NottinghamMan City
Days since last match7.12.9
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+13.9 d: @ Bournemouth (PL)+13.8 d: vs Fulham (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.201.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 5 (9)3 / 1 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)3 / 4 (9)6 / 5 (9)

Nottingham – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Brentford 0–2 · D @ Ipswich Town 1–1 · L vs Arsenal 0–1 · L @ Crystal Palace 1–3 · L vs Coventry City 0–1 · W @ Aston Villa 2–1

Man City – recent matches, all competitions: W @ RB Leipzig 3–2 · L vs Brighton Hove 0–1 · L @ Aston Villa 1–2 · W vs PAE AEK 5–1 · W vs Ipswich Town 3–2 · L vs PSG 2–4

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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