Ipswich Town FC vs AFC Bournemouth

Ipswich Town FC
#14 · 11 pts
vs
Scheduled
AFC Bournemouth
#8 · 12 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Ipswich Town 43%Draw 23%Bournemouth 33%
Over 2.561%
Both score63%
Model goals1.70–1.47

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 10.5%2–1 · 8.9%1–2 · 7.7%1–0 · 7.1%2–2 · 6.6%0–1 · 6.2%

Why

The model expects Ipswich Town to score 1.70 goals: league home average 1.50 × Ipswich Town home attack 0.93 × Bournemouth away defence 1.22.

It expects Bournemouth to score 1.47 goals: league away average 1.20 × Bournemouth away attack 1.20 × Ipswich Town home defence 1.02.

Based on 4 home games for Ipswich Town, 4 away games for Bournemouth and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Ipswich Town (43%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Ipswich TownBournemouth
Table position#14 · 11 pts#8 · 12 pts
Last 5 (newest first)DDLWLWWWLL
Home W-D-L (goals)2-1-1 (5:5)2-2-1 (7:4)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (9:13)1-1-2 (7:9)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.25 / 1.251.40 / 0.80
Goals per game away (for/against)1.80 / 2.601.75 / 2.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Ipswich TownBournemouth
Days since last match88
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+13 d: @ Tottenham (PL)+13 d: vs Nottingham (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.001.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)0 / 2 (9)3 / 1 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 7 (9)5 / 5 (9)

Ipswich Town – recent matches, all competitions: D @ Hull City 2–2 · D vs Nottingham 1–1 · L @ Man City 2–3 · W vs Fulham 2–1 · L @ Everton 0–1 · W @ Crystal Palace 3–2

Bournemouth – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Leeds United 2–0 · W @ Man United 3–0 · W vs Sunderland 2–0 · L @ Chelsea 1–5 · L vs Liverpool 0–1 · D vs Brentford 2–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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