Arsenal FC vs Hull City AFC

Arsenal FC
#1 · 24 pts
vs
Scheduled
Hull City AFC
#11 · 11 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Arsenal 58%Draw 24%Hull City 18%
Over 2.546%
Both score46%
Model goals1.70–0.82

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 13.7%2–0 · 11.6%1–1 · 11.2%2–1 · 9.5%0–0 · 8.0%0–1 · 6.6%

Why

The model expects Arsenal to score 1.70 goals: league home average 1.50 × Arsenal home attack 1.22 × Hull City away defence 0.93.

It expects Hull City to score 0.82 goals: league away average 1.20 × Hull City away attack 0.93 × Arsenal home defence 0.74.

Based on 4 home games for Arsenal, 4 away games for Hull City and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Arsenal (58%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

ArsenalHull City
Table position#1 · 24 pts#11 · 11 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WWWWLDDLDL
Home W-D-L (goals)4-0-0 (9:2)1-4-0 (7:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)4-0-1 (5:3)1-1-2 (4:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.25 / 0.501.40 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.00 / 0.601.00 / 1.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

ArsenalHull City
Days since last match2.87
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+14.1 d: @ Newcastle (PL)+15 d: vs Brighton Hove (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.600.60
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)6 / 1 (9)3 / 2 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 2 (9)4 / 5 (9)

Arsenal – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Slavia Praha 2–1 · W @ Liverpool 1–0 · W vs Everton 2–0 · D @ Bayern 2–2 · W @ Nottingham 1–0 · W vs Lille 3–0

Hull City – recent matches, all competitions: D vs Ipswich Town 2–2 · D vs Brentford 1–1 · L @ Fulham 0–1 · D vs Everton 2–2 · L @ Newcastle 1–2 · D @ Chelsea 2–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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