Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Brentford FC

Brighton & Hove Albion FC
#3 · 19 pts
vs
Scheduled
Brentford FC
#6 · 14 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Brighton Hove 69%Draw 18%Brentford 13%
Over 2.561%
Both score52%
Model goals2.28–0.86

Model pick 2–0

Most likely scores

2–0 · 11.2%1–0 · 9.8%2–1 · 9.7%3–0 · 8.5%1–1 · 8.5%3–1 · 7.4%

Why

The model expects Brighton Hove to score 2.28 goals: league home average 1.50 × Brighton Hove home attack 1.52 × Brentford away defence 1.00.

It expects Brentford to score 0.86 goals: league away average 1.20 × Brentford away attack 1.11 × Brighton Hove home defence 0.65.

Based on 4 home games for Brighton Hove, 4 away games for Brentford and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Brighton Hove (69%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Brighton HoveBrentford
Table position#3 · 19 pts#6 · 14 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLWWWWDLDW
Home W-D-L (goals)3-1-0 (13:1)3-1-1 (10:3)
Away W-D-L (goals)3-0-2 (11:6)0-4-0 (6:6)
Goals per game at home (for/against)3.25 / 0.252.00 / 0.60
Goals per game away (for/against)2.20 / 1.201.50 / 1.50
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Brighton HoveBrentford
Days since last match88
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+14 d: @ Hull City (PL)+15.3 d: vs Everton (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)2.401.60
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)6 / 1 (9)3 / 0 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 2 (9)5 / 6 (9)

Brighton Hove – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Man City 1–0 · L @ Liverpool 0–2 · W vs Crystal Palace 5–0 · W @ Sunderland 2–0 · W vs Arsenal 3–0 · W @ Coventry City 5–0

Brentford – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Nottingham 2–0 · D @ Hull City 1–1 · L vs Liverpool 1–2 · D @ Aston Villa 2–2 · W vs Chelsea 3–0 · D @ Bournemouth 2–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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