Everton FC vs Coventry City FC

Everton FC
#7 · 13 pts
vs
Scheduled
Coventry City FC
#16 · 9 pts

AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 10:42 pm

Everton 53%Draw 26%Coventry City 21%
Over 2.541%
Both score43%
Model goals1.49–0.82

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 14.7%1–1 · 12.1%2–0 · 11.0%0–0 · 9.9%2–1 · 9.0%0–1 · 8.1%

Why

The model expects Everton to score 1.49 goals: league home average 1.50 × Everton home attack 0.93 × Coventry City away defence 1.07.

It expects Coventry City to score 0.82 goals: league away average 1.20 × Coventry City away attack 0.74 × Everton home defence 0.93.

Based on 4 home games for Everton, 4 away games for Coventry City and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Everton (53%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

What the AIs predict

Every AI got exactly the same data and locked its pick before kickoff.

Claude1–0Locked
Everton 47% · draw 26% · Coventry City 27% · over 2.5 36%

Everton have a modest home record (2-1-1) but Coventry have conceded 1.78 per game and only 2 goals away. Everton's 1.00 scored per game and low-scoring form suggest a narrow home win, with a draw or Coventry upset plausible.

ChatGPT2–1Locked
Everton 49% · draw 28% · Coventry City 23% · over 2.5 47%

Everton are solid at home and concede few, while Coventry are weaker away and allow many goals overall. Season averages suggest a modest-scoring game with Everton slight favorites, but Coventry’s recent away threat keeps BTTS plausible.

AI reasoning is generated by each model from the data shown on this page and may contain mistakes.

Form & stats this competition season

EvertonCoventry City
Table position#7 · 13 pts#16 · 9 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLLDWWLLWW
Home W-D-L (goals)2-1-1 (5:4)2-0-3 (7:9)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-3-1 (4:5)1-0-3 (2:7)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.25 / 1.001.40 / 1.80
Goals per game away (for/against)0.80 / 1.000.50 / 1.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

EvertonCoventry City
Days since last match46.2
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+17 d: @ Brentford (PL)+14.8 d: vs Crystal Palace (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.401.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)4 / 3 (9)1 / 5 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)2 / 3 (9)5 / 3 (9)

Everton – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Newcastle 1–0 · L @ Arsenal 0–2 · L vs Chelsea 0–2 · D @ Hull City 2–2 · W vs Ipswich Town 1–0 · D @ Tottenham 0–0

Coventry City – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Sunderland 3–1 · L vs Fulham 0–1 · L @ Tottenham 1–3 · W vs Newcastle 4–1 · W @ Nottingham 1–0 · L vs Brighton Hove 0–5

Head-to-head

No previous meetings in the data source.

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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