Leeds United FC vs Tottenham Hotspur FC

Leeds United FC
#12 · 11 pts
vs
Scheduled
Tottenham Hotspur FC
#9 · 12 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Leeds United 47%Draw 29%Tottenham 24%
Over 2.535%
Both score41%
Model goals1.28–0.83

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–0 · 15.5%1–1 · 12.9%0–0 · 12.1%0–1 · 10.1%2–0 · 9.9%2–1 · 8.2%

Why

The model expects Leeds United to score 1.28 goals: league home average 1.50 × Leeds United home attack 1.00 × Tottenham away defence 0.85.

It expects Tottenham to score 0.83 goals: league away average 1.20 × Tottenham away attack 0.83 × Leeds United home defence 0.83.

Based on 4 home games for Leeds United, 4 away games for Tottenham and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Leeds United (47%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Leeds UnitedTottenham
Table position#12 · 11 pts#9 · 12 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDDLDWWWDL
Home W-D-L (goals)1-3-0 (6:3)2-1-2 (7:6)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-2-2 (3:5)1-2-1 (3:4)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.50 / 0.751.40 / 1.20
Goals per game away (for/against)0.60 / 1.000.75 / 1.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Leeds UnitedTottenham
Days since last match6.96.8
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+14.1 d: @ Chelsea (PL)+14.1 d: vs Ipswich Town (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.602.00
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 3 (9)4 / 4 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)2 / 5 (9)3 / 3 (9)

Leeds United – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Bournemouth 0–2 · D @ Sunderland 0–0 · D vs Man United 1–1 · L @ Arsenal 1–2 · D vs Crystal Palace 0–0 · W vs Newcastle 4–1

Tottenham – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Crystal Palace 2–0 · W @ Chelsea 2–0 · W vs Coventry City 3–1 · D @ Man United 1–1 · L vs Aston Villa 2–3 · D vs Everton 0–0

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Leeds United 1 wins, 1 draws, Tottenham 6 wins · 3.88 goals per game.

  • Tottenham 1–1 Leeds United Premier League · 11 May 2026
  • Leeds United 1–2 Tottenham Premier League · 4 Oct 2025
  • Leeds United 1–4 Tottenham Premier League · 28 May 2023
  • Tottenham 4–3 Leeds United Premier League · 12 Nov 2022
  • Leeds United 0–4 Tottenham Premier League · 26 Feb 2022
  • Tottenham 2–1 Leeds United Premier League · 21 Nov 2021

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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