Crystal Palace FC vs Liverpool FC

Crystal Palace FC
#18 · 7 pts
vs
Scheduled
Liverpool FC
#5 · 15 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Crystal Palace 20%Draw 20%Liverpool 60%
Over 2.564%
Both score61%
Model goals1.17–2.14

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–2 · 9.8%1–1 · 9.1%0–2 · 8.4%0–1 · 7.8%1–3 · 7.0%0–3 · 6.0%

Why

The model expects Crystal Palace to score 1.17 goals: league home average 1.50 × Crystal Palace home attack 1.00 × Liverpool away defence 0.78.

It expects Liverpool to score 2.14 goals: league away average 1.20 × Liverpool away attack 1.20 × Crystal Palace home defence 1.48.

Based on 4 home games for Crystal Palace, 4 away games for Liverpool and 90 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Liverpool (60%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Crystal PalaceLiverpool
Table position#18 · 7 pts#5 · 15 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLLWDLWWLW
Home W-D-L (goals)1-0-3 (6:10)1-2-2 (4:6)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (3:11)3-1-0 (7:3)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.50 / 2.500.80 / 1.20
Goals per game away (for/against)0.60 / 2.201.75 / 0.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.50 home and 1.20 away goals per match (90 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Crystal PalaceLiverpool
Days since last match7.93.8
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+13 d: @ Coventry City (PL)+14.1 d: vs Man United (PL)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.801.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 5 (9)4 / 3 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 4 (9)4 / 3 (9)

Crystal Palace – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Tottenham 0–2 · L vs Newcastle 0–2 · L @ Brighton Hove 0–5 · W vs Nottingham 3–1 · D @ Leeds United 0–0 · L vs Ipswich Town 2–3

Liverpool – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Fenerbahçe 2–3 · L vs Arsenal 0–1 · W vs Brighton Hove 2–0 · W vs Villarreal 4–3 · W @ Brentford 2–1 · W @ LASK 6–3

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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