Saga
AI prediction · locked November 4, 2026 10:42 pm
Model pick 2–1
Most likely scores
Why
The model expects Toulouse to score 1.62 goals: league home average 1.70 × Toulouse home attack 0.75 × Strasbourg away defence 1.26.
It expects Strasbourg to score 1.43 goals: league away average 1.33 × Strasbourg away attack 1.10 × Toulouse home defence 0.97.
Based on 4 home games for Toulouse, 5 away games for Strasbourg and 81 finished matches in the competition.
Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).
Most likely outcome: Toulouse (42%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.
What the AIs predict
Every AI got exactly the same data and locked its pick before kickoff.
Toulouse have a modest home edge, though their home record is only 1-1-2. Strasbourg have won only one away game and concede 2.11 per match, so a narrow Toulouse win with both sides scoring is the most likely outcome. The competition's 59% over-2.5 rate supports a two-goal total.
Both teams are near level in the table and on 10 points. Toulouse are stronger at home than Strasbourg away, but neither side has been consistent. Toulouse’s home games are low-scoring; Strasbourg’s recent results suggest goals but also vulnerability.
AI reasoning is generated by each model from the data shown on this page and may contain mistakes.
Form & stats this competition season
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #12 · 10 pts | #13 · 10 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LDWDW | WLLLL |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 1-1-2 (3:5) | 2-1-1 (9:6) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 1-3-1 (9:8) | 1-0-4 (8:13) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 0.75 / 1.25 | 2.25 / 1.50 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 1.80 / 1.60 | 1.60 / 2.60 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).
Schedule, form & head-to-head
| Toulouse | Strasbourg | |
|---|---|---|
| Days since last match | 5 | 5.2 |
| Matches in last 14 days | 2 | 2 |
| Next match | +15 d: @ RC Lens (FL1) | +15 d: vs Brest (FL1) |
| Points per game, last 5 (all comps) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp) | 2 / 4 (9) | 0 / 2 (9) |
| Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp) | 5 / 4 (9) | 8 / 7 (9) |
Toulouse – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Marseille 0–2 · D vs Troyes 0–0 · W @ Le Mans 3–0 · D @ Monaco 2–2 · W vs Le Havre 3–2 · D @ Lorient 2–2
Strasbourg – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Auxerre 5–1 · L @ Stade Rennais 0–3 · L vs PSG 1–3 · L @ Nice 1–2 · L @ Paris FC 1–2 · D vs Monaco 1–1
Head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Toulouse 3 wins, 2 draws, Strasbourg 4 wins · 2.22 goals per game.
- Strasbourg 1–2 Toulouse Ligue 1 · 3 May 2026
- Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 6 Dec 2025
- Strasbourg 2–1 Toulouse Ligue 1 · 16 Mar 2025
- Toulouse 1–2 Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 12 Jan 2025
- Toulouse 0–0 Strasbourg Ligue 1 · 7 Apr 2024
- Strasbourg 2–0 Toulouse Ligue 1 · 27 Aug 2023
Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.
More Ligue 1 matches
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 7 Nov 16:15
- PSG vs Troyes 7 Nov 19:45
- Stade Rennais vs Lille 8 Nov 14:00
- Le Mans vs Monaco 8 Nov 16:15
- Brest vs Olympique Lyon 8 Nov 16:15
- Le Havre vs Lorient 8 Nov 16:15
- Angers SCO vs Nice 8 Nov 16:15
- RC Lens vs Marseille 8 Nov 19:45