Racing Club de Lens vs Olympique de Marseille

Racing Club de Lens
#9 · 13 pts
vs
Scheduled
Olympique de Marseille
#6 · 15 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

RC Lens 43%Draw 23%Marseille 33%
Over 2.562%
Both score63%
Model goals1.72–1.48

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 10.4%2–1 · 8.9%1–2 · 7.7%1–0 · 7.0%2–2 · 6.6%0–1 · 6.1%

Why

The model expects RC Lens to score 1.72 goals: league home average 1.70 × RC Lens home attack 1.14 × Marseille away defence 0.88.

It expects Marseille to score 1.48 goals: league away average 1.33 × Marseille away attack 1.14 × RC Lens home defence 0.97.

Based on 4 home games for RC Lens, 4 away games for Marseille and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: RC Lens (43%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

RC LensMarseille
Table position#9 · 13 pts#6 · 15 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWWWLWWWWL
Home W-D-L (goals)3-0-1 (9:5)3-0-2 (13:8)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (7:8)2-0-2 (7:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.25 / 1.252.60 / 1.60
Goals per game away (for/against)1.40 / 1.601.75 / 1.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

RC LensMarseille
Days since last match47
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+13 d: vs Toulouse (FL1)+14 d: vs Le Mans (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.202.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)0 / 2 (9)3 / 2 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 7 (9)5 / 4 (9)

RC Lens – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Como 1907 1–9 · L @ Lille 0–1 · W vs Paris FC 2–1 · L @ Club Brugge 0–3 · W @ Troyes 3–1 · L vs Sporting CP 0–2

Marseille – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Toulouse 2–0 · W vs Le Havre 4–3 · W @ Angers SCO 5–2 · W @ Troyes 2–0 · L vs PSG 1–2 · L @ Stade Rennais 0–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

More Ligue 1 matches