Le Havre AC vs FC Lorient

Le Havre AC
#18 · 2 pts
vs
Scheduled
FC Lorient
#11 · 12 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Le Havre 23%Draw 29%Lorient 48%
Over 2.534%
Both score39%
Model goals0.79–1.28

Model pick 0–1

Most likely scores

0–1 · 16.2%1–1 · 12.8%0–0 · 12.7%0–2 · 10.3%1–0 · 10.0%1–2 · 8.1%

Why

The model expects Le Havre to score 0.79 goals: league home average 1.70 × Le Havre home attack 0.68 × Lorient away defence 0.69.

It expects Lorient to score 1.28 goals: league away average 1.33 × Lorient away attack 0.72 × Le Havre home defence 1.32.

Based on 5 home games for Le Havre, 4 away games for Lorient and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Lorient (48%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Le HavreLorient
Table position#18 · 2 pts#11 · 12 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LLLLLLDWWL
Home W-D-L (goals)0-1-4 (3:11)2-1-2 (5:6)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-1-3 (6:9)1-2-1 (2:2)
Goals per game at home (for/against)0.60 / 2.201.00 / 1.20
Goals per game away (for/against)1.50 / 2.250.50 / 0.50
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Le HavreLorient
Days since last match8.95.9
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+12.1 d: @ Troyes (FL1)+14 d: vs Stade Rennais (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.001.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 3 (9)5 / 3 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)5 / 6 (9)3 / 3 (9)

Le Havre – recent matches, all competitions: L vs PSG 1–5 · L @ Marseille 3–4 · L vs Auxerre 1–3 · L @ Lille 0–1 · L @ Toulouse 2–3 · D vs Angers SCO 0–0

Lorient – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Brest 0–2 · D @ Angers SCO 0–0 · W vs Monaco 1–0 · W vs Paris FC 1–0 · L @ Le Mans 1–2 · D vs Toulouse 2–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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