Angers SCO vs OGC Nice

Angers SCO
#15 · 8 pts
vs
Scheduled
OGC Nice
#8 · 14 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Angers SCO 39%Draw 26%Nice 34%
Over 2.549%
Both score53%
Model goals1.37–1.26

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–1 · 12.4%1–0 · 9.9%0–1 · 9.1%2–1 · 8.5%1–2 · 7.9%0–0 · 7.2%

Why

The model expects Angers SCO to score 1.37 goals: league home average 1.70 × Angers SCO home attack 0.79 × Nice away defence 1.01.

It expects Nice to score 1.26 goals: league away average 1.33 × Nice away attack 0.81 × Angers SCO home defence 1.18.

Based on 5 home games for Angers SCO, 4 away games for Nice and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

The outcome is close to a toss-up according to the model – treat the pick with extra caution.

Form & stats this competition season

Angers SCONice
Table position#15 · 8 pts#8 · 14 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDLLWWWLWW
Home W-D-L (goals)1-1-3 (5:9)3-2-0 (10:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-1-2 (4:8)1-0-3 (3:7)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.00 / 1.802.00 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.00 / 2.000.75 / 1.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Angers SCONice
Days since last match78.9
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+13.9 d: @ Paris FC (FL1)+13 d: vs PSG (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)0.802.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 4 (9)1 / 3 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 4 (9)6 / 6 (9)

Angers SCO – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Olympique Lyon 0–2 · D vs Lorient 0–0 · L vs Marseille 2–5 · L @ Brest 1–5 · W vs Troyes 2–0 · D @ Le Havre 0–0

Nice – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Stade Rennais 5–2 · W @ Brest 2–1 · L @ Olympique Lyon 1–2 · W vs Strasbourg 2–1 · W vs Lille 2–1 · L @ Auxerre 0–1

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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