Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs Lille OSC

Stade Rennais FC 1901
#5 · 16 pts
vs
Scheduled
Lille OSC
#2 · 18 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Stade Rennais 49%Draw 25%Lille 27%
Over 2.552%
Both score54%
Model goals1.62–1.13

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–1 · 11.7%1–0 · 10.3%2–1 · 9.5%2–0 · 8.3%0–1 · 7.2%1–2 · 6.6%

Why

The model expects Stade Rennais to score 1.62 goals: league home average 1.70 × Stade Rennais home attack 1.26 × Lille away defence 0.75.

It expects Lille to score 1.13 goals: league away average 1.33 × Lille away attack 0.97 × Stade Rennais home defence 0.88.

Based on 5 home games for Stade Rennais, 4 away games for Lille and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Stade Rennais (49%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

Stade RennaisLille
Table position#5 · 16 pts#2 · 18 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LWLWLWDDWL
Home W-D-L (goals)4-1-0 (13:5)3-2-0 (7:3)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-3 (7:14)2-1-1 (5:3)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.60 / 1.001.40 / 0.60
Goals per game away (for/against)1.75 / 3.501.25 / 0.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

Stade RennaisLille
Days since last match8.84.8
Matches in last 14 days23
Next match+14.1 d: @ Lorient (FL1)+13.2 d: vs Olympique Lyon (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.201.20
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)2 / 1 (9)5 / 0 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)8 / 6 (9)2 / 4 (9)

Stade Rennais – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Nice 2–5 · W vs Strasbourg 3–0 · L @ Paris FC 3–4 · W vs Auxerre 4–1 · L @ Olympique Lyon 0–4 · W vs Marseille 1–0

Lille – recent matches, all competitions: D @ Bodø/Glimt 0–0 · W vs RC Lens 1–0 · D @ Monaco 1–1 · L vs Galatasaray 2–4 · D vs Brest 1–1 · L @ Arsenal 0–3

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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