Stade Brestois 29 vs Olympique Lyonnais

Stade Brestois 29
#10 · 12 pts
vs
Scheduled
Olympique Lyonnais
#3 · 17 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Brest 46%Draw 26%Olympique Lyon 29%
Over 2.549%
Both score53%
Model goals1.50–1.13

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–1 · 12.2%1–0 · 10.8%2–1 · 9.2%0–1 · 8.2%2–0 · 8.1%0–0 · 7.2%

Why

The model expects Brest to score 1.50 goals: league home average 1.70 × Brest home attack 1.08 × Olympique Lyon away defence 0.82.

It expects Olympique Lyon to score 1.13 goals: league away average 1.33 × Olympique Lyon away attack 0.81 × Brest home defence 1.06.

Based on 4 home games for Brest, 4 away games for Olympique Lyon and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Brest (46%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

BrestOlympique Lyon
Table position#10 · 12 pts#3 · 17 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLDWLWLWLW
Home W-D-L (goals)1-1-2 (8:6)4-1-0 (12:3)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-2-1 (8:6)1-1-2 (3:4)
Goals per game at home (for/against)2.00 / 1.502.40 / 0.60
Goals per game away (for/against)1.60 / 1.200.75 / 1.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

BrestOlympique Lyon
Days since last match5.97
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+13.1 d: @ Strasbourg (FL1)+13.1 d: @ Lille (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.401.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 1 (9)4 / 2 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 7 (9)4 / 4 (9)

Brest – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Lorient 2–0 · L vs Nice 1–2 · D @ Lille 1–1 · W vs Angers SCO 5–1 · L @ Auxerre 1–2 · L vs PSG 0–1

Olympique Lyon – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Angers SCO 2–0 · L @ PSG 0–2 · W vs Nice 2–1 · L @ RC Lens 1–2 · W vs Stade Rennais 4–0 · D @ Paris FC 0–0

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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