AJ Auxerre vs Paris FC

AJ Auxerre
#14 · 10 pts
vs
Scheduled
Paris FC
#4 · 17 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Auxerre 41%Draw 27%Paris FC 32%
Over 2.545%
Both score50%
Model goals1.32–1.15

Model pick 1–0

Most likely scores

1–1 · 12.8%1–0 · 11.1%0–1 · 9.7%2–1 · 8.5%0–0 · 8.4%1–2 · 7.4%

Why

The model expects Auxerre to score 1.32 goals: league home average 1.70 × Auxerre home attack 0.88 × Paris FC away defence 0.88.

It expects Paris FC to score 1.15 goals: league away average 1.33 × Paris FC away attack 0.89 × Auxerre home defence 0.97.

Based on 4 home games for Auxerre, 4 away games for Paris FC and 81 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Auxerre (41%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

AuxerreParis FC
Table position#14 · 10 pts#4 · 17 pts
Last 5 (newest first)LDWLWWLWLW
Home W-D-L (goals)2-1-1 (5:5)4-1-0 (12:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-4 (8:18)1-1-2 (4:5)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.25 / 1.252.40 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)1.60 / 3.601.00 / 1.25
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 1.70 home and 1.33 away goals per match (81 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

AuxerreParis FC
Days since last match6.16
Matches in last 14 days22
Next match+14.1 d: @ Monaco (FL1)+14.9 d: vs Angers SCO (FL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.401.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 0 (9)3 / 3 (9)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 8 (9)6 / 5 (9)

Auxerre – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Strasbourg 1–5 · D vs Le Mans 1–1 · W @ Le Havre 3–1 · L @ Stade Rennais 1–4 · W vs Brest 2–1 · W vs Nice 1–0

Paris FC – recent matches, all competitions: W vs Monaco 3–1 · L @ RC Lens 1–2 · W vs Stade Rennais 4–3 · L @ Lorient 0–1 · W vs Strasbourg 2–1 · D vs Olympique Lyon 0–0

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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