1. FC Köln vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

1. FC Köln
#13 · 9 pts
vs
Scheduled
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
#6 · 13 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

1. FC Köln 52%Draw 21%Leverkusen 27%
Over 2.569%
Both score67%
Model goals2.09–1.45

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

2–1 · 9.2%1–1 · 8.8%2–2 · 6.7%3–1 · 6.4%1–2 · 6.4%2–0 · 6.3%

Why

The model expects 1. FC Köln to score 2.09 goals: league home average 2.12 × 1. FC Köln home attack 0.87 × Leverkusen away defence 1.13.

It expects Leverkusen to score 1.45 goals: league away average 1.38 × Leverkusen away attack 1.20 × 1. FC Köln home defence 0.88.

Based on 4 home games for 1. FC Köln, 4 away games for Leverkusen and 72 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: 1. FC Köln (52%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

1. FC KölnLeverkusen
Table position#13 · 9 pts#6 · 13 pts
Last 5 (newest first)DDLWLLLWWW
Home W-D-L (goals)2-2-0 (6:4)3-0-1 (10:5)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-1-3 (3:8)1-1-2 (8:11)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.50 / 1.002.50 / 1.25
Goals per game away (for/against)0.75 / 2.002.00 / 2.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.38 away goals per match (72 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

1. FC KölnLeverkusen
Days since last match78
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+12.2 d: @ Bayern (BL1)+13 d: vs SC Paderborn (BL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.001.80
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)1 / 2 (8)2 / 1 (8)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)4 / 6 (8)7 / 5 (8)

1. FC Köln – recent matches, all competitions: D @ Union Berlin 1–1 · D vs Schalke 0–0 · L @ Frankfurt 0–1 · W vs M'gladbach 2–1 · L @ HSV 1–2 · D vs Bremen 1–1

Leverkusen – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Stuttgart 2–4 · L @ Hoffenheim 0–3 · W vs Freiburg 2–1 · W @ Mainz 4–3 · W vs RB Leipzig 2–0 · D @ Augsburg 2–2

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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