RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg

RB Leipzig
#4 · 15 pts
vs
Scheduled
FC Augsburg
#10 · 9 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

RB Leipzig 81%Draw 11%Augsburg 8%
Over 2.584%
Both score65%
Model goals3.48–1.10

Model pick 3–1

Most likely scores

3–1 · 7.9%3–0 · 7.2%4–1 · 6.9%2–1 · 6.8%4–0 · 6.3%2–0 · 6.2%

Why

The model expects RB Leipzig to score 3.48 goals: league home average 2.12 × RB Leipzig home attack 1.50 × Augsburg away defence 1.10.

It expects Augsburg to score 1.10 goals: league away average 1.38 × Augsburg away attack 1.44 × RB Leipzig home defence 0.56.

Based on 4 home games for RB Leipzig, 3 away games for Augsburg and 72 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: RB Leipzig (81%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

RB LeipzigAugsburg
Table position#4 · 15 pts#10 · 9 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WWLWLLDLDL
Home W-D-L (goals)4-0-0 (18:0)1-3-1 (9:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)1-0-3 (4:11)1-0-2 (9:8)
Goals per game at home (for/against)4.50 / 0.001.80 / 1.40
Goals per game away (for/against)1.00 / 2.753.00 / 2.67
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.38 away goals per match (72 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

RB LeipzigAugsburg
Days since last match2.87
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+14 d: @ Union Berlin (BL1)+15 d: vs Mainz (BL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.200.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)5 / 1 (8)1 / 0 (8)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)6 / 2 (8)7 / 7 (8)

RB Leipzig – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Man City 2–3 · W @ Schalke 2–0 · W vs Elversberg 4–0 · L @ Real Madrid 1–4 · L @ Bayern 1–6 · W vs PSV 1–0

Augsburg – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Freiburg 1–2 · D vs Union Berlin 1–1 · L @ Elversberg 3–4 · D vs Bayern 2–2 · L @ Bremen 2–3 · D vs Leverkusen 2–2

Head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: RB Leipzig 6 wins, 4 draws, Augsburg 0 wins · 3.70 goals per game.

  • RB Leipzig 2–1 Augsburg Bundesliga · 7 Mar 2026
  • Augsburg 0–6 RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 25 Oct 2025
  • Augsburg 0–0 RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 14 Feb 2025
  • RB Leipzig 4–0 Augsburg Bundesliga · 28 Sep 2024
  • Augsburg 2–2 RB Leipzig Bundesliga · 10 Feb 2024
  • RB Leipzig 3–0 Augsburg Bundesliga · 16 Sep 2023

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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