SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

SC Paderborn 07
#14 · 9 pts
vs
Scheduled
Eintracht Frankfurt
#8 · 11 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

SC Paderborn 51%Draw 23%Frankfurt 26%
Over 2.560%
Both score60%
Model goals1.84–1.26

Model pick 2–1

Most likely scores

1–1 · 10.5%2–1 · 9.6%1–0 · 8.3%2–0 · 7.6%1–2 · 6.6%2–2 · 6.0%

Why

The model expects SC Paderborn to score 1.84 goals: league home average 2.12 × SC Paderborn home attack 0.76 × Frankfurt away defence 1.13.

It expects Frankfurt to score 1.26 goals: league away average 1.38 × Frankfurt away attack 1.04 × SC Paderborn home defence 0.88.

Based on 4 home games for SC Paderborn, 4 away games for Frankfurt and 72 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: SC Paderborn (51%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

SC PaderbornFrankfurt
Table position#14 · 9 pts#8 · 11 pts
Last 5 (newest first)DWDLWWLWLD
Home W-D-L (goals)2-0-2 (4:4)2-1-1 (7:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)0-3-1 (2:5)1-1-2 (6:11)
Goals per game at home (for/against)1.00 / 1.001.75 / 1.75
Goals per game away (for/against)0.50 / 1.251.50 / 2.75
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.38 away goals per match (72 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

SC PaderbornFrankfurt
Days since last match75.9
Matches in last 14 days12
Next match+14 d: @ Leverkusen (BL1)+14 d: vs Hoffenheim (BL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.601.40
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)3 / 5 (8)1 / 2 (8)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)3 / 2 (8)6 / 5 (8)

SC Paderborn – recent matches, all competitions: D @ M'gladbach 0–0 · W vs HSV 1–0 · D @ Bremen 2–2 · L vs Stuttgart 0–2 · W vs Hoffenheim 3–1 · L @ Dortmund 0–3

Frankfurt – recent matches, all competitions: W vs HSV 3–1 · L @ Dortmund 0–1 · W vs 1. FC Köln 1–0 · L @ RB Leipzig 0–6 · D vs Freiburg 2–2 · W @ Mainz 3–1

Head-to-head

Last 1 meetings: SC Paderborn 0 wins, 0 draws, Frankfurt 1 wins · 5.00 goals per game.

  • Frankfurt 3–2 SC Paderborn Bundesliga · 27 Jun 2020

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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