SC Freiburg vs 1. FC Union Berlin

SC Freiburg
#3 · 16 pts
vs
Scheduled
1. FC Union Berlin
#16 · 7 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Freiburg 83%Draw 11%Union Berlin 7%
Over 2.580%
Both score59%
Model goals3.35–0.94

Model pick 3–0

Most likely scores

3–0 · 8.6%3–1 · 8.1%2–0 · 7.7%2–1 · 7.2%4–0 · 7.2%4–1 · 6.8%

Why

The model expects Freiburg to score 3.35 goals: league home average 2.12 × Freiburg home attack 1.18 × Union Berlin away defence 1.33.

It expects Union Berlin to score 0.94 goals: league away average 1.38 × Union Berlin away attack 0.72 × Freiburg home defence 0.96.

Based on 4 home games for Freiburg, 3 away games for Union Berlin and 72 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Freiburg (83%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

FreiburgUnion Berlin
Table position#3 · 16 pts#16 · 7 pts
Last 5 (newest first)WLLWDDDDWL
Home W-D-L (goals)3-0-1 (12:5)1-3-1 (6:7)
Away W-D-L (goals)2-1-1 (6:5)0-1-2 (1:12)
Goals per game at home (for/against)3.00 / 1.251.20 / 1.40
Goals per game away (for/against)1.50 / 1.250.33 / 4.00
xGn/an/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.38 away goals per match (72 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

FreiburgUnion Berlin
Days since last match8.17.1
Matches in last 14 days21
Next match+12.9 d: @ Elversberg (BL1)+12.9 d: vs RB Leipzig (BL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)1.401.20
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)2 / 0 (8)2 / 3 (8)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)7 / 6 (8)4 / 4 (8)

Freiburg – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Augsburg 2–1 · L vs Bayern 1–3 · L @ Leverkusen 1–2 · W vs Schalke 2–1 · D @ Frankfurt 2–2 · W vs M'gladbach 5–0

Union Berlin – recent matches, all competitions: D vs 1. FC Köln 1–1 · D @ Augsburg 1–1 · D vs Dortmund 0–0 · W vs Elversberg 1–0 · L @ Bayern 0–7 · L vs Schalke 1–3

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

  • Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
  • Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
  • Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
  • Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
  • Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
  • The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

  • No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
  • No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
  • Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
  • Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
  • Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.

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