1. FSV Mainz 05 vs FC Bayern München

1. FSV Mainz 05

#9 · 10 pts

Scheduled

November 7, 2026 2:30 pm

FC Bayern München

#1 · 18 pts

Model preview · not locked yet (locks 48 h before kickoff)

Mainz 26%Draw 21%Bayern 53%

Over 2.568%

Both score66%

Model goals1.41–2.10

Model pick 1–2

Most likely scores

1–2 · 9.3%1–1 · 8.8%0–2 · 6.6%2–2 · 6.6%1–3 · 6.5%0–1 · 6.3%

Why

The model expects Mainz to score 1.41 goals: league home average 2.12 × Mainz home attack 0.87 × Bayern away defence 0.76.

It expects Bayern to score 2.10 goals: league away average 1.38 × Bayern away attack 1.12 × Mainz home defence 1.36.

Based on 4 home games for Mainz, 4 away games for Bayern and 72 finished matches in the competition.

Attack above 1.00 means scoring more than the league average; defence above 1.00 means conceding more than average (weaker).

Most likely outcome: Bayern (53%). This is an estimate, not a certainty.

Form & stats this competition season

	Mainz	Bayern
Table position	#9 · 10 pts	#1 · 18 pts
Last 5 (newest first)	LLWLW	DWWDW
Home W-D-L (goals)	0-1-3 (6:10)	3-1-0 (20:4)
Away W-D-L (goals)	3-0-1 (11:7)	2-2-0 (7:4)
Goals per game at home (for/against)	1.50 / 2.50	5.00 / 1.00
Goals per game away (for/against)	2.75 / 1.75	1.75 / 1.00
xG	n/a	n/a

xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.12 home and 1.38 away goals per match (72 finished matches).

Schedule, form & head-to-head

	Mainz	Bayern
Days since last match	7.8	3.8
Matches in last 14 days	1	3
Next match	+15 d: @ Augsburg (BL1)	+13.2 d: vs 1. FC Köln (BL1)
Points per game, last 5 (all comps)	1.20	2.20
Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp)	3 / 1 (8)	2 / 1 (8)
Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp)	6 / 5 (8)	7 / 6 (8)

Mainz – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Elversberg 1–4 · L vs Bremen 2–3 · W @ Schalke 1–0 · L vs Leverkusen 3–4 · W @ M'gladbach 4–3 · L vs Frankfurt 1–3

Bayern – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Atleti 2–0 · D vs Dortmund 2–2 · W @ Freiburg 3–1 · D vs Arsenal 2–2 · W vs RB Leipzig 6–1 · D @ Viking 3–3

Head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Mainz 2 wins, 1 draws, Bayern 5 wins · 5.25 goals per game.

Mainz 3–4 Bayern Bundesliga · 25 Apr 2026
Bayern 2–2 Mainz Bundesliga · 14 Dec 2025
Bayern 3–0 Mainz Bundesliga · 26 Apr 2025
Mainz 2–1 Bayern Bundesliga · 14 Dec 2024
Bayern 8–1 Mainz Bundesliga · 9 Mar 2024
Mainz 1–3 Bayern Bundesliga · 21 Oct 2023

Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.

Model assumptions & limitations

Assumptions

Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.

Limitations

No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.