Saga
Manchester United FC
#17 · 6 pts
3–2
AS Roma
#20 · 4 pts
AI prediction
No model prediction was made for this match.
Form & stats this competition season
| Man United | Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #17 · 6 pts | #20 · 4 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | WLLW | LWLD |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 2-0-0 (7:2) | 1-0-1 (7:4) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 0-0-2 (1:6) | 0-1-1 (3:4) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 3.50 / 1.00 | 3.50 / 2.00 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 0.50 / 3.00 | 1.50 / 2.00 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.32 home and 1.72 away goals per match (72 finished matches).
Schedule, form & head-to-head
| Man United | Roma | |
|---|---|---|
| Days since last match | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Matches in last 14 days | 3 | 3 |
| Next match | +4.9 d: vs Aston Villa (PL) | +4 d: vs Sassuolo (SA) |
| Points per game, last 5 (all comps) | 0.20 | 2.60 |
| Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp) | 1 / 1 (4) | 1 / 0 (4) |
| Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp) | 3 / 2 (4) | 3 / 3 (4) |
Man United – recent matches, all competitions: L @ Chelsea 0–2 · L vs Bournemouth 0–3 · L @ Como 1907 1–4 · D @ Leeds United 1–1 · L @ Atleti 0–2 · D vs Tottenham 1–1
Roma – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Udinese 5–2 · W vs Cagliari 4–2 · D @ Napoli 3–3 · W vs Sl. Bratislava 4–0 · W vs Genoa 2–0 · L vs Real Madrid 3–4
Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.