Saga
Villarreal CF
#28 · 3 pts
0–6
Paris Saint-Germain FC
#1 · 12 pts
AI prediction
No model prediction was made for this match.
Form & stats this competition season
| Villarreal | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Table position | #28 · 3 pts | #1 · 12 pts |
| Last 5 (newest first) | LLWL | WWWW |
| Home W-D-L (goals) | 1-0-1 (3:7) | 2-0-0 (10:3) |
| Away W-D-L (goals) | 0-0-2 (5:7) | 2-0-0 (10:2) |
| Goals per game at home (for/against) | 1.50 / 3.50 | 5.00 / 1.50 |
| Goals per game away (for/against) | 2.50 / 3.50 | 5.00 / 1.00 |
| xG | n/a | n/a |
xG is not available from the current data source (football-data.org). Competition averages: 2.32 home and 1.72 away goals per match (72 finished matches).
Schedule, form & head-to-head
| Villarreal | PSG | |
|---|---|---|
| Days since last match | 4 | 4.1 |
| Matches in last 14 days | 2 | 2 |
| Next match | +4.9 d: vs Getafe (PD) | +4 d: vs Troyes (FL1) |
| Points per game, last 5 (all comps) | 1.40 | 3.00 |
| Clean sheets / failed to score (this comp) | 0 / 1 (4) | 1 / 0 (4) |
| Over 2.5 / both scored (this comp) | 4 / 3 (4) | 4 / 3 (4) |
Villarreal – recent matches, all competitions: L vs Espanyol 0–1 · W @ Valencia 2–1 · L @ Liverpool 3–4 · D vs Elche 0–0 · W vs Napoli 3–1 · L @ Real Madrid 0–1
PSG – recent matches, all competitions: W @ Le Havre 5–1 · W vs Olympique Lyon 2–0 · W vs Barça 4–2 · W @ Strasbourg 3–1 · W @ Man City 4–2 · W vs Le Mans 3–1
Only the six tracked competitions count; domestic cups are not included.
Model assumptions & limitations
Assumptions
- Goals for each team follow independent Poisson distributions.
- Expected goals (λ) = league average home/away goals × attack strength × opponent defence strength.
- Strengths use only this competition and season: home form for the home side, away form for the away side. If either team has too few home/away games, overall form (all games) is used instead and this is stated in the explanation.
- Strengths are shrunk towards the league average when few games have been played.
- Predictions are for the score after regular time (90 minutes plus stoppage time).
- The model's tipped score is the one with the highest expected points under the game's scoring system, not necessarily the most likely single score.
Limitations
- No injuries, suspensions, line-ups, transfers, rotation or motivation are considered.
- No xG or shot data is used – the current data source does not provide it.
- Results in other competitions (e.g. domestic league for Champions League teams) are not included.
- Independent Poisson models tend to slightly underestimate draws.
- Probabilities are estimates with considerable uncertainty, not facts or guarantees.