How it works

SagaBetting is a free football analysis and prediction game. There are no real-money bets, stakes, deposits or payments – it’s about football knowledge and fun.

1. Matches and data

We follow the UEFA Champions League, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1. Fixtures, results and tables are synced automatically from football-data.org. Table position, recent form and home/away records are calculated only from real match data.

2. The AI prediction (SagaModel)

SagaModel is a transparent statistical model (a Poisson model) built on each team’s attacking and defensive strength. For every match it estimates the chance of a home win, draw and away win, over/under 2.5 goals, both teams to score and the most likely scores. Its assumptions and limitations are shown on every match page.

Predictions are created up to 48 hours before kickoff and then locked with a timestamp and signature. They can never be changed afterwards – so the track record is honest.

3. Beat the AI

• Log in and predict the score of any match before kickoff.
• 3 points for the exact score, 1 point for the correct outcome (home, draw or away).
• One prediction per match, and it can’t be changed once saved.
• Results are scored on the 90-minute result (extra time and penalties don’t count).

4. Track record

After full time every locked prediction is scored. The model track record shows accuracy, points per match and calibration, compared with simple baselines on the same matches.

Data provided by football-data.org.